Kuwait 2006-2007 (Part Two)

The Bottleneck Period-Facts and Analysis

I believe that the transformation of the ruling role from one person to another is always an intriguing subject to follow, and it deserves its rightful effort and time in analysis.

And what makes this issue more precarious is when this matter is left without consensus with the availability of different options as what happened in Kuwait in the year 2006.

Theoretically speaking; all options for the lastest rule transformation were left open although it was practically preordained to the benefit of the current Amir Shaikh Sabah Alahmad-may God prolong his life- where all official parties and the public were resolute of the incapability of Shaikh Saad Alabdulla -may God prolong his life- to take the burden of such magnitude due to his ailment.

And the question that imposes itself is; what if this dispute reoccurs in the future with the availability of two equally powerful candidates to succeed for the throne? And what if this dispute arises between three or four candidates of equal magnitude? And what if no candidate was willing to renounce his right for the benefit of the other? How will the parliament react to that? And what will be the punishment awaiting the parties that supported the losing candidate(s)? And what will be the reward or the bounties awaiting the parties that supported the winning candidate(s)? And what is the implication of this operation in each transformation; is it beneficial to the security and prosperity of the country? Or is it a hindering aspect to its prosperity in comparison to its neighbors?

To be frank with you; the mere thought of this sends shivers down my spine, I still can remember the state of agony and fear that accompanied the previous transformation of the rule; pledge of allegiance, hand-kissing, blue-tooth and loads of official statements and psychological wars and rumors that actually took two weeks in duration and practically would take years of emotional distress.

So let’s now discuss the current situation today and forecast its implication on the future:
The ruler of Kuwait today is Shaikh Sabah Alahmad- may God prolong his life- a man known for his wittiness in national and international politics, with years of expertise in the changing political arena and its readjustments.

And his deputy Shaikh Nawaf Alahmad- may God prolong his life- is a man known for his composure and is much loved by Kuwaities.

And here I have to make two important points:

• First; both persons are in the approximate age of mid-seventies, which increases their chances for ailment, such as of old age or death-God forbids- and this fact takes us back to the starting point of the last period of Shaikh Jaber Alahmad and his deputy Shaikh Saad’s reign, when they were both suffering of old age until the inevitable occurred and Kuwait suffered the dispute over the indecision of the successor(s).

• Second; there is no clear vision or direction in the course of preparation of the successor to Shaikh Nawaf Alahmad, although there are plenty predictions and rumors that surface to the top once and a while.

And according to my personal analysis of the events of 2006, I have come to believe that the succession to the throne is not a matter that should be taken lightly as was done before, and it’s an issue that should take serious planning and pre-preparation of the eligible candidate for a smooth, natural transition.

And in this respect;

• the first point that should be taken into consideration is the formation of a solid relationship between the candidate and all parties representing the public. In addition, the candidate should have a solid financial base without any scandals that may sabotage his political file. And it also should be taken into account the role that the representatives of the people (MPs) played in the past transition, which indicates its importance in future transition.

• The second point that should be taken into consideration is that the candidate should exercise a good relationship with a vast number of the decision makers within the ruling family; the blessings of the prominent members in the ruling family has a big effect on public opinion, for there has always been a reciprocal relationship between the ruling family and the public.

Personally; I can foresee that the competition over the rule would be between the descendants of Skaikh Ahmad Aljaber- may God rest his soul, and a very limited members of the Salem branch.

• The first prediction goes that the most eligible candidate is Shaikh Mishal Alahmad, whereas the next in line is Shaikh Naser Sabah Alahmad to succeed Skaikh Nawaf Alahmad.

• The second prediction is to bypass shakh Mishal and assign the role to Shaikh Naser directly.

If the first prediction materializes, then the matter is quite simple since Shaikh Mishal represents the older, more respected generation, and the decision is more likely to be accepted by the younger generation who would not dare compete with him.

But if the second prediction comes true, then Shaikh Naser would be a subject of competition by at least one more candidate (the descendants of Shaikh Fahad Alahmad, Shaikh Sabah Alsalem, Shaikh Salem Alli as well as the descendants of Skaikh Jaber Alahmad)

And according to these predictions, the ruling party is urged to:

• First provide the security by assigning the role of succession to Shaikh Nawaf Alahmad; may God prolong his life.

• Second to plan and undergo all the essential preparations for a smooth and natural transition of the rule, to spare the country the unnecessary disorder that it may experience due to this procrastination.

For example; the decision to promote Shaikh Naser Alsabah to be the successor is considered very logical within the available candidates, and therefore the ruling entity should make all provisions to hinder any future competition that may have a negative affect on the country’s political life in the future. And although these provisions may include tension or bitterness to the parties involved, but nevertheless; it is necessary for future security of the country.

And here, I do not wish to elaborate on the details of these provisions, but would rather emphasize the importance of decreasing the power of rival candidates gradually to avoid any future competition over the throne. For power creates popularity, and popularity promotes ambitions, and ambition asserts competition. And I also do not rule out the importance of forming early alliances between the to-be-ruler and prominent figures in the ruling family- not the competitors- in an effort to form an asset against any future competition.

And the last point, which is the most important point, is to start a well-studied strategy for marketing the to-be-ruler, and this will be the subject of my next article.

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